Abstract
A Study on Otokar's Growth and Profitability Forecasting Using the Box-Jenkins Method
The aim of this study is to establish suitable models for equitable profitability (active profitability, equitable growth and active growth) using economic data of OTOKAR, a successful company in the defense industry sector, and to make predictions with these models. The data obtained from the company were analyzed, and forecasts were created. The Box-Jenkins method used in the study is more successful in making short-term forecasts than other time series forecasting methods, such as determining the structure of a time series, using the dependency of the observation values in the most effective way and including statistical tests in the model determination stages. Necessary analyses were carried out by using the economic data of the related company covering the period of 1996-2018, and appropriate Box-Jenkins models were obtained. With the help of these models, predictions were made for 8 periods of 3 months for 2019-2020. According to the forecasts made, it is understood that OTOKAR's return on equity and return on assets will regularly increase in the coming periods. It was also observed that equity growth values will tend to increase regularly, while active growth values will tend to decrease slightly before increasing slightly and fluctuating.
Keywords
Defense Industry, Time Series Analysis, Box-Jenkins Method, OTOKAR
